The college football world was wishing for a March Madness kind of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the 4 first-round matches underwhelmed, supplying plenty of time for vacation shopping. Favorites went a perfect 4-0 against the spread, including three fairly non-competitive efficiencies by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the general public don't seem to believe so. A minimum of in two cases.
Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State feature double-digit spreads preferring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has actually been an especially popular pick with the public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in regards to total dollars since Monday afternoon.
"All the money is can be found in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, composed in a text to The Athletic. "We require Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The enthusiasm for the Longhorns extends to the futures market too. Bear in mind that huge $1.5 million wager on Texas to win it all at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' challenger, Arizona State - the greatest underdog amongst the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most love from sharp wagerers. The Athletic talked to numerous bookmakers who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had actually gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books against No. 5 Texas - to press the line down to -12.5 or -12.
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John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he got a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "extremely reputable gamer."
Despite the fact that respected money has been available in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely require the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public gamblers are stacking on Texas.
"We would enjoy to see ASU cover, and then Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee added.
While the game will be big for the books, it isn't the only game in the area. We chatted with multiple bookies to break down where the sports betting action is on the other three College Football quarterfinal matchups. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at most sportsbooks and has approached somewhat to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is fairly divided at most sportsbooks. The total dollars wagered differs by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets however just 42% of the money at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the second most popular CFP wager in regards to overall tickets at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are resting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. "I would not be surprised if this line creeps up a bit more before kickoff, however I currently invite any Boise State cash."
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Ohio State got the Oregon 2nd possibility it wanted. Are the Buckeyes all set for vengeance?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
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Perhaps most surprising to the general public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog against No. 8 Ohio State. These groups fulfilled back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home pet.
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So why is OSU favored?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic talked with before the CFP preliminary had Ohio State atop their power ratings, and the lookahead lines for this hypothetical match were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker discussed that Ohio State playing up to its power ranking in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also shaped his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending upon the sportsbook) in this video game before highly regarded money pressed it to the current line of -2.5. A somewhat greater majority of wagers at several sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near 60% of the money has actually can be found in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle game of the four come kickoff.
"We did take some reputable money at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it's stayed," Gable stated. "It's decent two-way action at that number right now. The overall has increased three points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has actually been the biggest relocation of any of the totals. Money has actually all been on the over up until now.
Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that caters to sharp gamblers, told The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point favorite, and instantly our Ohio wagerers thought we were too low. Our opening cost of Ohio State -1 has been increased to -2.5 and the total from 52 to 55."
He did note, though, that the book had actually seen significant buyback at the current line of Ohio State -2.5 which 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
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GO DEEPER
The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's second round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The preferred flipped in this video game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point favorite and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What triggered the line flip? Put simply, the sports betting action.
Despite the fact that Georgia's starting QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been changed by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, bettors are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by overall dollars bet), and it has been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at multiple sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Cash is Coming in On Texas'
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